A decade after the UK entered into a hasty public vote that polarised the nation and unleashed disorder, a advisory comes from across the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Policymakers and electorate entered unwittingly Brexit and the similar might transpire with a referendum on a unified Ireland, triggering convulsions for which nobody is ready.
That represents the warning from two respected journalists from both sides of the Irish border who have joined forces to scrutinise the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland departing the UK to form a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Structures Not Ready
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have found that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are woefully unready for a possibly contentious and seismic referendum.
"The lesson of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that developments can come out of the blue and can build support swiftly," O’Toole remarked. "I would suggest that the governmental framework of our archipelago remains highly fragile."
Book Publication Intends to Provoke Discussion
The pair have analysed the political, financial and societal reasons for any structural alteration in a book, Examining Irish Unification, published by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to encourage dialogue on the topic with a series of speaking events that will take them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What concerns all parties, or should haunt every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said the analyst.
"We must avoid a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, ambiguous question whose implications have not been spelled out because then you find yourself with an extraordinarily divided society where people who have lost are not reconciled to losing and the people who have won lack clarity precisely what it is that they have won."
Legal Framework
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state must arrange a public vote on Irish unification if it appears likely that a most voters would support.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists argue this point is looming, and a group named pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but both governments and unionists downplay the possibility, resulting in ambiguity when or if there will be a referendum.
Insufficient Informed Dialogue
Ideological statements supporting and opposing unification has hidden the lack of substantive discussion, stated McBride.
"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the concept but the actual thinking which may surpass that to achieve it hasn't for the most part happened. A lot has gone on in scholarly circles but hardly any politicians or advocates seek to involve themselves with even the fundamentals. To illustrate, what type of nation would you want? Centralised? Federal?"
Book's Approach
In the volume, no writer supports unification or the status quo. Both writes two essays that strive for neutrality in presenting the case for a unified Ireland and the rationale against, marshalling financial and societal statistics, previous instances and structural examples.
Discussions range over flags and symbols, levies, healthcare systems, retirement funds, national debt responsibilities and the risk of pro-UK militancy. The objective is to enlighten and stimulate conversation.
"Considerable attention exists in the topic but there has not yet occurred a dialogue," stated O’Toole. "Discussion suggests an acknowledgement of the concept that there may exist good arguments on either side."
Dual Referendums
A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters claim they prefer unification but reject paying higher taxes or introducing a alternative symbol to recognise pro-UK communities' British culture.
"Policymakers in Ireland should work out what the plan from pro-unification movements is beyond just stating: 'We want a unified Ireland and we value you'," said the commentator.
Likelihood of Public Vote
The journalist thinks a referendum in his generation is possible and that it might occur abruptly. "It is possible just a irresponsible or a bad or a incompetent secretary of state who declares: 'Let us proceed and resolve it.'"
Each of the nationalists and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, legitimate perspectives, he said. "Somebody will prevail on this issue and the other side will eventually be defeated but all factions has has something to learn from the opposing arguments."
Request for More Extensive Debate
Westminster must engage with the dialogue, said the analyst. "This involves the United Kingdom. It's a British issue just as much as it is an Irish question."
