Europe breathed a deep collective sigh of relief on Monday, as the tension caused by the introduction of a new comprehensive peace framework for achieving ceasefire appeared – momentarily – to have been defused. A senior US official spoke of "notable headway" after Ukraine-US talks in Geneva. On Monday night, the Kremlin made its response: a renewed assault of missile and drone strikes on Kyiv.
The Pattern of Diplomacy and Destruction
The sequence of conflicting incidents captured the grim essence of the current period. By day, political struggles are fought: hopeful statements are issued from various governments. Considerable effort is allocated on containing particular approaches. By night, Russian leadership clearly shows the world that, for them, conflict continues to be the main instrument for achieving "peace".
Nighttime Reality
As Russia's attack progressed into the early hours of Tuesday, the present situation of Ukraine's exposure was revealed. Ukraine is capable of detecting rocket firings from Russian territory, a ability afforded by timely intelligence. From vantage locations, Ukrainian air force fighter jets that had been deployed to intercept incoming aerial threats roared overhead – modern combat jets provided to Ukraine by NATO members.
Shortly after, Kyiv's missile defense engaged: multiple launches targeted at a hostile projectile. This was a advanced protection mechanism at work, most likely supplied through partner states. Every launch shakes the surroundings, rattling buildings. The brief panic quickly becomes grim resignation: perhaps the incoming missile won't hit its mark this time, sparing the city from ruin and additional electricity failures.
Persistent Threats
Following this, a heavy machine gun fired at a unmanned aircraft close by, part of a defensive team – almost certainly imported technology. Sadly, the projectiles didn't strike the enemy aircraft – it continued its flight toward its destination.
With pauses, this persisted until dawn. Kyiv awoke to the daybreak reports: seven people killed, devastation and heating outages in many homes as a result of the night's assault. As typically, everyone still maintained normal activities – living the war. But those 24 hours encapsulated Ukraine's critical military reliance on external assistance – a need that European nations are demonstrably unable to substitute in the short term.
Failed Diplomacy
The 28-point plan from Washington sparked intense emotion, discussion and deep concern – and briefly redirected concern from Ukraine's most significant graft case in years. Yet, we have witnessed similar scenarios, after earlier high-level meetings and multilateral gatherings.
Every new proposal from American administration follows the identical sequence: a diplomatic cavalry charge against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with other European capitals, manages to fend off. They stabilise the situation but never actually achieve victory. This pattern will, undoubtedly, endure.
Political Considerations
It is easy to blame particular leaders of persistently promoting Kremlin's demands. But that does not seem to be the entire situation. American leadership works based on a principle understood by experienced diplomats: you cannot secure via talks what you have been unable to protect through force. The US administration assumes that it is impossible to compel Moscow to abandon the territory that it currently occupies in Ukraine's southern or eastern regions.
The problem is that while accepting these circumstances, US leadership does nothing to discourage Russia, through words or deeds, from believing that the current condition will not shift further in its advantage in the coming year.
Divergent Views
Therefore, Russian leadership is convinced that the clock favors them – that Ukraine and its partners are coming close to fatigue. Their motivation to agree to terms that does not give them the maximum possible gain is virtually nonexistent. There may be numerous efforts to end hostilities, but they will continue as long as Russia's government remains supremely confident in the outcome.
On the contrary, Ukrainian leadership believes that Ukraine can still endure, progressively conceding civilians and areas but averting a total frontline collapse until conditions improve in its benefit.
Existing Situation
Factually, there are no genuine requirements for a armistice. Now, subjective factors are coming into play: personal goals to mediate resolution and achieve global acclaim, and the government's double obstacles – on one hand, not to alienate a key ally, and on the other, to unite the population around the flag against any plan Kyiv finds unsuitable, so that their attention does not move to internal issues. And although their mission will now be much harder after latest incidents, it remains quite doubtful that this will alter their fundamental strategy.
These conflicting dynamics are guiding negotiations.
Assessment and Future
It took a mere seven days to kill the suggested clauses of the latest plan. Assertive and inconsistent approach of the matter by Washington, pushback by Ukraine and the rest of Europe, along with soothing efforts of diplomats, and finally, recent disclosures, all achieved their purpose.
While new proposals based on established approaches are imminent, Kyiv, London and other Western governments should draw one fundamental conclusion: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to resist diplomatic offensives from Washington that are rooted in Kremlin requirements and reflect certain reluctance to alter the situation, if they remain united and improve their protective measures at a significantly accelerated rate. If they do, neither political nor armed coercion will be able to overcome them. In the meantime, Ukraine's capability to repel nightly air assaults will, for the predictable period, primarily depend on ongoing international assistance.
